The combination of the Royal birth, the summer’s run of British sporting triumphs and the fine weather is set to give the economy a bigger boost even than last year’s Olympics, a leading City economist said today.
The prediction came as other forecasters predicted a mini economic “baby boom” worth a quarter of a billion pounds triggered by the arrival of the boy who is third in line to the throne.
George Buckley, chief UK economist at Deutsche Bank, said it was a “reasonable conclusion” that the recent sustained outbreak of cheery news, topped by the Royal baby, would improve the mood of battered consumers and feed through into spending and growth.
In a detailed analysis titled “UK: Sport, sun, son, sentiment = spend” he said: “Good news from a hot summer of sporting success, economic and social improvement and a Royal baby could add to confidence — and the recovery — going forward.”
By contrast the main measure of consumer confidence barely moved during the euphoric Olympic goldrush of summer 2012, he added.
Other City economists say the impact of the birth of baby Cambridge is likely to be“overwhelmingly positive” because of boosted high street sales — ranging from mementoes such as a Royal baby paperweight to cut-price versions of the Duchess of Cambridge’s polka dot dress — as well as betting at the bookies on a name. It is expected to be the biggest non-sporting betting event in history.
Mr Buckley said that combined with Andy Murray’s historic Wimbledon win, Chris Froome’s Tour de France victory, the Ashes cricket successes and the British Lions rugby triumph as well as the longest heatwave for seven years, the Royal birth could lift consumer confidence to levels not seen since the start of the 2008 crash.
His comments came ahead Thursday’s publication of the UK’s latest GDP growth figure for the second quarter of the year, showing the economy surging ahead by 0.6 per cent, double the previous quarter.
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